Showing posts with label leverage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label leverage. Show all posts

Friday, April 8, 2011

The dark side of the ECB

Lots of people have been focusing on the recent ECB rate rise, but the ECB’s role in this crisis has really been determined by its other – more opaque and less publicised – role: as lender of last resort. This has got the ECB into a near untenable position. It faces huge exposure to peripheral eurozone countries, it aims to maintain price stability, but has also acted to stabilise the whole eurozone economy, and it has underwritten a bloated and inefficient banking sector with unlimited cheap money.

The ECB has lent massively to the struggling European banking sector. Although this may have been viable and necessary to halt the systemic risk from the financial crisis it is now out of control. It has propped up banks that should have gone bust and created banks addicted to ECB funding. A mechanism for reining in lending and winding down banks should have been in place from the start. The ECB essentially dug itself a hole without bringing a ladder to get itself out again.

Let’s not forget, these actions also helped fuel the sovereign debt crisis by creating perverse incentives. These banks could take on cheap ECB loans and then invest in high yielding but relatively safe assets (peripheral sovereign bonds at the time), in order to turn quick profit and increase capital. This fuelled the level of government debt and when it became clear just how bad the sovereigns' finances were, markets panicked and the debt crisis hit (but with more debt and more banks involved/exposed than before).

The ECB tried to fix this problem by throwing more liquidity at it (through its bond buying programme). This just increased its exposure to risky economies, distorted bond markets and rightly raised questions over its independence and impartiality (not to mention being potentially inflationary).

Lastly, the ECB has overseen the build up of huge imbalances in the eurosystem of central banks. Some, like Ireland or Greece, borrow huge amounts but contribute little. The loans to these countries are underwritten by other central banks in the system, making them even more exposed to a peripheral default.

The ECB has played a huge role in the cycling of debt around the eurozone, and put itself in a very exposed and compromising position. Its interest rate policy is massively important but the darker side of ECB policy has debatably played a more important (and negative) role in this crisis.

To be fair to the ECB this was not all of its own making, since it was forced into this situation by eurozone leaders inaction, which is further illustration of the politicisation of a once proudly independent central bank.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Double standards on leverage

The excellent WSJ Real Time Brussels blog notes that EU Budget Commissioner Janusz Lewandowski isn't entirely happy with the amount of money that potentially can be lent to struggling governments, using the EU budget as a guarantee.

Mr. Lewandowski told a group of journalists: "That is worrying me...[the EU must] be realistic about the budget as a guarantee." In case of danger, he said, "we should be very watchful" about the maturities of the various pieces of debt issued to countries.

So what exactly is the Big Lewandowski on about?

Well, besides the €440 billion eurozone bailout package, which does not include the UK and is guaranteed by eurozone governments, the EU also agreed in May to a separate €60 billion fund. This fund is to be raised by the Commission on the markets, and then lent to eurozone countries in trouble, using the EU budget as collateral. The loans would therefore be guaranteed by all member states, including the UK, since all member states pay into the budget.

Added to the pre-existing fund for non-eurozone members, which totals €50bn, the EU budget can therefore potentially be used as a guarantee for €110bn in loans. And given the state of the economies on the receiving end, these loans can only be described as sub-prime (with some exceptions).

The size of the EU budget is roughly €123 billion euros this year (set to rise by €7 billion if MEPs get their way), so should countries max out these bailout funds, the bloc's debts could reach 89% of its equity (the EU budget).

Ironically, the Stability and Growth Pact stipulates that no EU country is allowed to have a debt higher than 60% of GDP. We know it's not the same thing, but Lewandowski is certainly making a good point. €110 billion is actually massive exposure.

In addition, isn't this potentially causing the EU - as in the legal entity not individual countries - to break the very same rules that the Commission now wants to beef up?

But then again, on leverage as well as fiscal prudence, the EU isn't exactly known for leading by example.