Permanent euro bail-out fund failing before starting?

Standard & Poor’s yesterday downgraded both Greek and Portuguese debt by one notch and kept them on negative outlooks. That hints at further downgrades in the near future, although given the extent of the problems in both countries that could be as soon as next week.

More interesting to us, is the reasoning behind the downgrade. S&P directly puts its decision down to the agreement which was reached on the permanent bailout fund (ESM) at last week’s EU summit. In particular, the fact that, as expected, ESM debt will be senior to all private debt and taking loans from the ESM may be conditional on restructuring debt. S&P suggests this could be “detrimental to commercial creditors”.

Investors feared ESM uncertainty, but if there’s one thing markets hate more than uncertainty, it’s having their fears crystallised by government policy. The ESM undoubtedly makes peripheral government bonds more risky to hold and was always going to be met with a downgrade and higher borrowing costs. The real questions remain: Why did EU leaders decide to announce this two years in advance, thereby massively prolonging and increasing the pain of peripheral economies? And at the same time why did they put off dealing with the temporary bail-out fund, the EFSF?

There's still no agreement on how to top up the EFSF, which in turn makes investors doubt the EU's capability to deal with future bail-outs. Sorting out the EFSF might have helped limit the fallout from the ESM decisions; in any case it makes no sense to delay the more pressing of the two issues. Flagging up the fact that debt restructuring may be possible down the line somehow manages to simultaneously ignore the fact that it should be done sooner while also increasing the need for it.

Eurozone countries continue to complain about rating agencies' actions – which are admittedly far from perfect – but maybe they should stop throwing fuel on the fire.

While the principle behind it is very much welcome - putting the burden on taxpayers rather than investors - due to poor sequencing and timing, the ESM has managed to fail before it even came close to starting. That’s impressive even for an EU policy.

Greek Debt Price Soars as Moody's Cuts Credit Rating Below Egypt
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: The Greek government has reacted angrily to Moody's decision to cut the country's credit rating below that of Egypt, a move that prompted investors to dump the debt of other struggling European economies.

The country's debt was lowered to B1 from Ba1, as the ratings agency warned that Greece faces a shortfall in tax revenue and huge challenges in reforming state-owned companies and its costly healthcare system.

"The sheer magnitude of the task is becoming ever more apparent," said Sarah Carlson, an analyst at Moody's.

The Greek Finance Ministry yesterday described Moody's move as "totally unjustfied".

"Having completely missed the build-up of risk that led to the global financial crisis in 2008, the rating agencies are now competing with each other to be the first to identify risks that will lead to the next crisis," it said. Continue reading and comment >>> Richard Blackden | Monday, March 07, 2011

Moody’s Slashes Ireland’s Credit Rating
THE NEW YORK TIMES: BRUSSELS — Even as Europe’s leaders were praising the Irish government’s deficit-cutting efforts, the country received a dramatically different verdict Friday from a credit rating agency: a steep downgrade and a warning of more to come.

Having pledged late Thursday to do “whatever is required” to contain the debt crisis and defend their embattled currency, European Union leaders reconvened for the final day of a summit meeting. In the draft of a closing statement, the leaders welcomed the “impressive progress” in Dublin toward meeting the stiff conditions set for its recent bailout, including adoption of steep budget cuts.

Moody’s Investors Service had a different assessment, however. It cut Ireland’s credit rating by five notches to Baa1, with a negative outlook, from Aa2 and said further downgrades could follow.

The downgrade represented a further blow for a county that has enacted deep austerity cuts — and it is likely to raise questions about whether the rating agencies are exacerbating the efforts of struggling euro countries to emerge from the crisis. >>> Stephen Castle and Matthew Saltmarsh | Friday, December 17, 2010

Flag of China. Image: Google Images
Chinese Rating Agency Strips Western Nations of AAA Status
THE TELEGRAPH: China's leading credit rating agency has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France of their AAA ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in favour of the West.

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co used its first foray into sovereign debt to paint a revolutionary picture of creditworthiness around the world, giving much greater weight to "wealth creating capacity" and foreign reserves than Fitch, Standard & Poor's, or Moody's.

The US falls to AA, while Britain and France slither down to AA-. Belgium, Spain, Italy are ranked at A- along with Malaysia.

Meanwhile, China rises to AA+ with Germany, the Netherlands and Canada, reflecting its €2.4 trillion (£2 trillion) reserves and a blistering growth rate of 8pc to 10pc a year.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, chief of the International Monetary Fund, agreed on Monday that the rising East is a transforming global force. "Asia's time has come," he said. >>> Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor | Monday, July 12, 2010