Rising tide

There is an interesting new poll in Le Monde today, showing that 62% of French people think that having the euro has aggravated the economic crisis in France. This is compared with 28% who think that it has protected France during the crisis - and 10% who said they were undecided.

Increasing voter dissatisfaction with the euro has been on the rise for some time now - unhappy with the cost, and the principle, of the eurozone bailout which they were assured would never happen (along with all of those other assurances on the single currency which now lay by the wayside).

For example, an FT/Harris poll back in March put the number of Germans who thought they would be better off outside the euro at 40%.

Then a poll for Handelsblatt in May found that 44% of Germans wanted the D-Mark back, and 38% of the French wanted their national currency back.

What's more - it's not just those locked inside the eurozone, but potential future members which are re-thinking their position. One year ago a poll for Swedish Television found that 47% of Swedes would vote Yes in a referendum on euro membership, and 45% would vote no - a very tight result. Yet in a new poll released just two weeks ago, opposition to joining had risen to 61%, with support for joining falling to 25%.

Increasing German unhappiness at the eurozone bailout and unwillingness to continue as Europe's paymaster has been well documented in recent months.

However, the addition of a rising French tide of displeasure at the way the euro has developed adds a new twist to the narrative that the Germans have been terribly seflish in showing reticence towards the cost of bailing out other euro member states - and one that may have far-reaching consequences.

How the EU elite got it wrong on the euro

Yesterday we published a range of different promises and reckless predictions made by politicans regarding the euro over the last 15 years. Its quite clear that politicans, central bankers and others got it spectacularly wrong on the euro - displaying a combination of naïve idealism, incompetence and dishonesty.

Yes, it's now in everyone's interest for the eurozone to sort out its mess. But we also need to be honest about the fact that beyond the economic failure - as serious as that is - this crisis is about a breakdown in trust between the political class and European citizens.

If people are ever going to re-gain faith in politics - and their belief in the EU's ability to deliver what citizens actually want - now is the time to push for an alternative model for European co-operation, one that is more democratic, and both politically and economically sustainable.

Here are some examples of broken promises and bad predictions on the euro illustrating why we simply can't go on like this (for the entire briefing, see here):

The Community shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project

- Article 104b, Maastricht Treaty, 1992.

We have a Treaty under which there is no possibility of paying to bailout states in difficulty

- German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, 1 March 2010.

[Greek Prime Minister] Papandreou has said that he didn’t want one cent. The German government will not give one cent, anyway

- German Economy Minister, Rainer Brüderle, 5 March 2010.

The single currency, far from being an agent of continental style corporatism, is probably the greatest export vehicle of Anglo-Saxon economics. The euro has done more to enforce budgetary discipline, to promote privatisation and force through labour and product market liberalisation in the rest of Europe than any number of exhortations from the IMF, the OECD, or the editors of The Economist

- Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, 2002.

The reality of the euro has exposed the absurdity of many anti-European scares while increasing the public thirst for information. Public opinion is already changing […] as people can see the success of the new currency on the mainland and the alarming fall in inward investment into Britain as international companies show an increasing reluctance to locate here

- Kenneth Clarke MP, 2002.

The euro has been a rock of stability, as illustrated by the contrasting fortunes of Iceland and Ireland. Joining the single currency would be a major step

- Former Labour MEP Richard Corbett, 2009[5].

We must enter the euro with a clean sheet on all the criteria

- Then Greek Finance Minister, Yannis Papantoniou, 1999

The thrust of the spirit and of the letter of the Treaty is that everything is done to construct the euro area as an optimum currency area. First by ensuring that it incorporates economies that have already proved being convergent in the fiscal field as well as in the monetary and financial fields

- Then Governor of the Bank of France, Jean-Claude Trichet, 1997

It is sometimes said that while the single monetary policy may be ‘right’ for the euro area as a whole, it is ‘wrong’ for many individual countries within the area. I disagree with this view. First, it overlooks the fact that within a single currency area adjustment can occur via prices and wages

- Then President of the European Central Bank, Wim Duisenberg, 1999

Solidarity is possible, [and] will exist. A bailout is not possible and will not exist

- Then EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Joaquín Almunia, 29 January 2010

I will defend European Central Bank’s independence under any circumstance and with all my strength

- ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet, 2007[10].

The euro is a protection shield against the crisi

- European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, 5 February 2010[11].

The Maastricht treaty obliges the European Central Bank to pursue price stability and the ECB is more likely to overfulfil its treaty target than to ignore it. As long as this is the case, there is not the slightest danger of a break-up of the Eurozone […] On the contrary, I expect the Eurozone to be exceptionally stable in the long run […] Make no mistake, the Eurozone is here to stay

- FT columnist Wolfgang Munchau, 2006

The euro area now represents a pole of stability for those countries participating in it by protecting them from speculation and financial turmoil. It is strengthening the internal market and contributing to the maintenance of healthy fundamental figures, fostering sustainable growth

- European Council conclusions, 2001