Whose side would a European army be on?

Following German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle's speech at the weekend, announcing that the long term goal of EU security and defence policy under Lisbon should be the creation of a European army, the French Defence Minister Hervé Morin today made a rather different, but nonetheless important announcement.

He revealed that, after much um-ing and ah-ing, France is to sell one, and possibly as many as four, amphibious assault ships to Russia. The Economist's Charlemagne correspondent notes that after seeing one of these ships at St Petersburg in November 2009, Russian PM Vladimir Putin said on a visit to Paris: "I can assure you that if we purchase this armament, we will use it wherever deemed necessary." Similarly a senior Russian admiral declared that if such ships had been in the fleet in 2008, Russian forces would have overrun Georgia "within 40 minutes", rather than in 26 hours.

The WSJ notes that both the US and the eastern European members of NATO are not amused and it's certainly unlikely that France's decision will do anything to dispell the concerns in both the UK and the EU accession states that its vision for EU defence policy poses a threat to the transatlantic alliance.

Franco-British military cooperation is back in vogue within the MoD but actions like this highlight the fact that on crucial questions such as engagement with Russia, Iran's nuclear programme and other key foreign policy questions of the day - opinion in the EU is divergent, and that is not something that the Lisbon Treaty could, or did, magic away.

Obama's not the only one confused by Lisbon

The Obama "snub" continues to gather headlines in today's papers. PJ Crowley, the US Assistant Secretary of State, today confirmed that the uncertainty created by the new posts created under the Lisbon Treaty had been a major factor in Obama's decision to withdraw, saying:

"Because of the changes involving the establishment of a EU council president and a European commission president on top of the rotating EU presidency, I think it's taking some time to work through exactly how various high-level meetings will happen."

And it seems it's not only the Americans who haven't got a clue who they're meant to be talking to. Le Figaro notes that, on his visit to the EU this week, Mongolian President Tsakhia Elbegdorj was left perplexed as to which of the EU's various presidents he was speaking to at any one time. After one meeting, he said:

“I have just been received by the European Council President, I was received yesterday by the President of the European Parliament and after this meeting I will meet the President of the European Council...Er...”

Quite.

"Figure it out and let us know"...

was the message, according to the WSJ, that the US State Department chose to leave on the EU's voicemail this weekend, presumably while the Spanish, who hold the EU Presidency, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso all wrestled with each other as they failed to answer the phone.

Although this isn't strictly true, it's an image that fits with the 'Kissinger question' of "who do I call if I want to speak to Europe?", if he ever actually said it that is.

What is true is that President Obama has pulled out of the annual EU-US summit this spring and one of the reasons is that the EU's various presidents have been so busy arguing over who would get to shake his hand first that they apparently forgot to send out the invitations.

In the words of a State Department official, "We don't even know if they're going to have one [a summit]. We've told them, 'Figure it out and let us know.'"

A more diplomatic official said, "Who attends from the US and at what point will depend on who's calling the meeting. There's a competition in Europe because you now have the standing EU architecture."

This was supposed to be the first high-level EU-US summit after the entry into force of the EU's 'magical cure', also known as the Lisbon Treaty, which was billed as the answer to the EU's inability to deal with the outside world as one, creating a President, a Foreign Minster, and a diplomatic service.

But it turns out Obama doesn't seem that bothered about coming round to watch the EU play with its new toys. For some strange reason the US President thinks it's more important to travel to Asia in the spring, to South Africa in the summer and to Portugal for the NATO summit in the Autumn.

Just a thought but maybe that's because there will be people there with something more important to say..