there should be a prize for people who can watch all of this.

cool cellphone pic by diddy

Two vetoes for the price of one

In Parliament this afternoon, David Cameron gave his statement on last week's EU summit, followed by questions from MPs. The debate was a bit all over the place if we're to be perfectly honest, with the 2.9% increase to the EU's 2011 budget dominating.

The most talked about intervention came from Ed Miliband who said in response to Cameron's alleged cave-in on the EU budget freeze for 2011: “He wished he could come back and say No, No No, but in his case it's a bit more like No, Maybe, Oh go on then.” (apparently a phrase Miliband didn't quite come up with himself).

On actual substance, Chris Heaton-Harris made the most astute observation. He noted that the PM now has two separate vetoes at his disposal: one over Treaty change and one over the EU budget post-2013. Heaton-Harris asked whether Cameron would use the two vetoes independently to achieve EU reform. As we’ve argued before, a twin-track approach to EU negotiations is by far the smartest way to achieve reform in Europe and the restoration of some democratic control over key EU powers.

If the two vetoes are used in parallel but for seperate issues - one for repatriation of powers and the other for concessions on the CAP for instance - we bet anyone (eurosceptics and federalists alike) that the Coalition government will get at least one game-changing concession in return.

The Coalition could even get other member states along for the ride if it's confident and strategic enough. After all, Merkel has given us a great example for how to do it.

Unfortunately, in response to Heaton-Harris and also earlier in the debate, Cameron hinted he would pass up his veto over the treaty change, effectively giving EU partners a two-vetoes-for-the-price-of-one deal.

Hopefully this isn't the end of the story though, as there's still much to play for before Treaty changes are agreed. But MPs need to get their line of argument in order or the Coalition might well go for the do-nothing option.

For Cameron to use the twin-vetoes separately but in parallel, is surely what backbenchers in favour of EU refom should be pushing for?

The euro cannot live by budget discipline alone

An interesting new paper by German think tank Centrum für Europäische Politik has listed "Five hard rules for a hard Euro". It sums up some of the ideas on how to save the euro, currently floating around Germany.

Here they are:

1. More automatic sanctions for countries with excessive deficits.
   
   
2. A new sanctions regime for budget deficits should be introduced, but the paper argues that the 60% debt to GDP ratio target is arbitrary if it doesn't include how much new debt is being added every year. Interestingly, the CEP argues that the current Commission proposals necessitates Treaty change (not only Merkel's proposal for a eurozone crisis mechanism).
   
   
3. A 1% budget deficit should be restored as a medium-term goal, by establishing stronger preventive sanctions. This should include imposing non-interest bearing deposits on countries as a sanction, instead of interest-bearing deposits.
   
   
4. An insolvency procedure for member states along the lines of what Merkel has pushed for. However, the CEP argues that this only will be effective if the concept that banks are "too big to fail" is also tackled. We look forward to seeing the CEP elaborating on this point, as it's absolutely vital.
   
   
5. Macro-economic supervision by the European Commission would improve the functioning of the Stability Pact. However, there shouldn't be sanctions for persistent economic imbalances. Hardly surprising, the think-tank argues that EU recommendations to reduce imbalances shouldn't focus on strong export countries, as this would be to the disadvantage of Germany.
   

Whether all these proposals will fly is doubtful. But the paper is important, because although Merkel has won praise for getting treaty change agreed to in principle - and although we tend to favour a crisis mechanism which transfers risks away from taxpayers - some key questions remain.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung this weekend complained that Merkel has in effect already conceeded to putting in place a permanent eurozone rescue mechanism before

it is made clear how owners of state bonds would have to take a haircut in case of a rescheduling of sovereign debt.

The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard notes that ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned EU leaders on Thursday night that they didn't understand what they were unleashing. He writes that "Eurozone sovereign states must issue €915bn in new bonds next year", which might get more complicated

as investors have just been told in blunt terms to charge a hefty risk premium on any peripheral debt that expires after 2013, with great confusion over what happens even before that date.

And then there's democracy. Granting unelected bureaucracies such as the European Commission unprecedented powers over budgetary and economic policy will unavoidably weaken the powers of national Parliaments.

Ultimately, however, the proposed solutions don't tackle the core problem, which is the loss of competitiveness among eurozone countries on the periphery. (See point 5 above for the predominant German attitude to being told that this is partly Germany's fault.)

Spain and Ireland more or less respected the stability pact, but they're still in a mess - a mess in no small part caused by unsuitable interest rates in the boom-years, which were really designed to serve Germany. The only solution to these problems is a break-up of the eurozone or perpetual fiscal transfers (highlighted by so many people, including FT editor Lionel Barber a couple of days ago).

As Barber concluded, the medium term solution will be to "muddle through" but at some point the eurozone, and Germany in particular, will have to adress the eurozone's fundamental problems.

Indeed, the euro cannot live by budget discipline alone.

Jonathan Wald Named Executive Producer of CNN’s Piers Morgan Tonight

Jonathan Wald, former executive producer of NBC's Today and Nightly News, and former senior vice president of CNBC, has been named executive producer of CNN's Piers Morgan Tonight debuting in January 2011, it was announced today by CNN executive vice president Ken Jautz. Wald's appointment is effective immediately.
Most recently Wald has been an advisor to AOL on cross-platform programming initiatives. From 2006-2009, Wald served as senior vice president of CNBC, responsible for all business news programming. During a period of unprecedented financial and economic crisis, CNBC expanded business coverage into primetime and weekends, resulting in the highest ratings and revenue in the network’s history. Wald was also responsible for multimedia development and the use of business news on cnbc.com as well as marketing and promotion of that content on all platforms.

Read the full press release after the jump.



Jonathan Wald Named Executive Producer of CNN’s Piers Morgan Tonight

Jonathan Wald, former executive producer of NBC's Today and Nightly News, and former senior vice president of CNBC, has been named executive producer of CNN's Piers Morgan Tonight debuting in January 2011, it was announced today by CNN executive vice president Ken Jautz. Wald's appointment is effective immediately.

“Jonathan has spent more than 20 years as a top producer in broadcast and cable television news and has the unique ability to produce television that is smart and provocative,” said Jautz. “We are thrilled that he’ll be joining the CNN family.”

Most recently Wald has been an advisor to AOL on cross-platform programming initiatives. From 2006-2009, Wald served as senior vice president of CNBC, responsible for all business news programming. During a period of unprecedented financial and economic crisis, CNBC expanded business coverage into primetime and weekends, resulting in the highest ratings and revenue in the network’s history. Wald was also responsible for multimedia development and the use of business news on cnbc.com as well as marketing and promotion of that content on all platforms.

Said Wald, “CNN is an important news organization and a powerful worldwide brand. I am so excited to join this team. I can’t wait to get started and to collaborate with Piers on redefining the long-form interview program in primetime.”

Wald, a three-time Emmy Award winner, was the executive producer of Today where he led the program’s distinguished coverage during the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the contested 2000 presidential election, and the first live morning show performance by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band. Prior to Today, he was the executive producer of NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw where he was responsible for all aspects of the top-rated flagship broadcast.

“Jonathan is tough, funny, smart as hell, incredibly experienced, and wants to win,” said Morgan.

Wald began his career as a desk assistant at NBC News in 1983 while a freshman at Columbia University, then moved to WBZ-TV (Boston) where he produced every major broadcast including the 11 o'clock news. He returned to New York as a field producer for NBC's Brian Williams in 1993. Wald received a B.A. from Columbia and since 2001, serves on the adjunct faculty at the Graduate School of Journalism at Columbia University. He is married and lives in New York City with his wife and two children.



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More CROP Pix

Thanks to Kate Lombardi for sending me these two!

Is the ECB trustworthy?

...according to an increasing number of citizens, the answer to that quesiton is "no". Handelsblatt today notes that trust in the European Central Bank is at its lowest level among citizens in the EU since the introduction of the euro.