Election for Iraq

the critical parliamentary elections slated for March 7

As Kuwaitis went through their annual ritual of marking the 19th anniversary of liberation from their northern neighbour (Iraq) a disgraceful watershed event which has left an indelible mark in the body of Arab politics they kept a wary eye on the campaigns in Iraq leading to the critical parliamentary elections slated for March 7

Seven years into the war, Iran's influence in Iraq seems to be in ascendance, while US influence seems to be abating. Iran looms large with its influence over many Shiite political groups, in addition to its leverage over the de-Baathification committee, which was highlighted by the commander of the US forces in Iraq.

In contrast, the US leverage in Iraq is on the wane. Christopher Hill, the US ambassador in Iraq, admitted recently to the Council on Foreign Relations that "we have to be mindful of the limited ability to affect the political situation in Iraq. Our leverage is not somehow threatening to withdraw troops or threatening to invade some boardroom with troops. Our leverage is to say: Iraq, if you want a good relationship with us a long-term relationship with us we need to make sure these elections are democratic".

This is alarming for its consequences on the security architecture of the region in the aftermath of the US military withdrawal.

According to General Raymond T. Odierno, the commander of US forces in Iraq, US troop numbers stand at 96,000. For the first time since the invasion seven years ago, the US troops are below 100,000, down from a peak of 166,000 in October 2007.

US combat forces will be reduced to below 50,000 by the end of next August with full US military withdrawal by the end of December 2011.

This is critical as Iraqis prepare to go to the polls after a two-month delay and in the midst of bickering over the de-Baathification. What is ironic and alarming is the clear accusation by General Odierno that Ali Al Lami, executive director of the Accountability and Justice Commission and Ahmad Chalabi, the commission's chairman, are "clearly influenced by Iran and are in close contact with Iran's Al Quds Force commander".

But what has emerged lately raises a lot of questions about the fragile state of affairs in Iraq. The US military is rethinking its withdrawal plans sort of having a ‘Plan B'. It is some kind of a contingency plan to delay or slow down the withdrawal of US combat forces in case the security situation deteriorates.

A new cycle of violence and bloodshed could be launched by those who lose the elections, and could be precipitated by political boycotts. These days Iraq seems to be living in an atmosphere similar to that which prevailed during the run-up to the 2005 elections, with political bickering, sectarian enmity and political rivalry all too evident.

Marc Lynch, professor at the George Washington University, pointed out: "There's been a mini-boom of late in commentary urging Obama to delay his timeline for drawing down US forces, or at least to do more."

The Washington Post opined recently: "With several major coalitions competing for power, US officials said they are bracing for a prolonged period of political instability in Iraq after the elections. Many predict a repeat of 2005, when it took Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki several months to form a government."

Hill told the Council on Foreign Relations last week that "how long this is going to take, this government formation, that is really the rub. There's a good reason why people are worried".

On the other hand, General Odierno admitted that the US was prepared to make changes to the withdrawal plans "if we run into problems".

It is important to point out that the timeline of US combat withdrawal is legally binding and could only be delayed if the Iraqi government requested a delay. Because of that, US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates was clear in reassuring everyone that the US was not in a mood to renegotiate the Status of Forces Agreement (Sofa) with Iraq.

"We would have to see a pretty considerable deterioration of the situation in Iraq, and we don't see that, certainly, at this point," he said.

Once again Iraq seems to be facing the pangs of change. The country, still under reconstruction, is being built on a sectarian, ethnic and provisional faultline. This is a landmark election for Iraq, with a lot at stake for Iraqis and its neighbours are anxious to see the birth of the new Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbours .

We hope the new emerging Iraq will be united and contribute to the stability and the balance of power in our region which has suffered from chronic instability, wars and bloodshed.