Following a month long campaign which involved 3 days of heavy fighting, the Burma Army has taken almost complete control of Kokang whose leader had refused to accept the former’s Border Guard Forces (BGF) demand. Now leaders of the remaining ceasefire groups, whose troops are on full alert, are betting on what its next move will be.
A Kokang rebel source believes the Burma Army’s next target will be the United Wa State Army (UWSA), its strongest ally. “Thousands of Burmese troops are pouring into Kunlong (north of the Wa-controlled territory) and Mongkhark-Mongyang (south of the Wa controlled territory),” he told SHAN. “If the junta is going to start a simultaneous attack from both the north and south, the Wa will be hard pressed to make a decision where they should focus their defenses, north or south.”
To the non-ceasefire Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’, it is quite obvious that the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) bordering southeast to the Wa along the Sino-Burma border, is the next goal. During an interview with Thai PBS Television on 1 September, SSA leader Sao Yawdserk said Mongla would be followed by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and then the UWSA. “We (the SSA) will be the last.”
The view appears to be shared by both some of the Mongla leaders and the people in eastern Shan State.
Thousands of people from Mongyang (under Burma Army control) and Mongpawk-Mongphen (under UWSA control) have been fleeing either to the Chinese border or to Kengtung (102 km southwest of Mongyang) and even to Tachilek on the Thai-Burma border, according to two separate reports.
On 1 September, a day after a visit by officers from the Kengtung-based Triangle Region Command, an official letter from the junta’s chief negotiator from Naypyitaw Lt-Gen Ye Myint arrived. “He said our leaders had nothing to worry, as the situation in Kokang and Mongla are totally different,” recounted a source close to the leadership. “For one thing, Kokang had internal problems and for the second thing, the Kokang leaders had violated the law by involving themselves in drug and arms production. Moreover, they (Kokang troops) had fired first, thus leaving the Burma Army with no choice but to fight back.”
A meeting held after its receipt was quite conclusive, according to the source. “These are honey words from the enemy to catch us off our guard,” one officer was quoted as saying. “We are already on the highest alert. But we need to be even more alert, now that we have received such sweet words.”
Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said, “Humble words by envoys and increased preparations are signs that the enemy is about to advance.”
The meeting had also discussed how to upgrade the cooperation and coordination among the Peace and Democracy Front (PDF) member group: Kokang, Wa and Mongla. No details were given.
Other leaders, meanwhile, think there are reasons the Burma Army is not going to carry its war machine into areas under the control of other ceasefire groups:
• China’s insistence that the border stability be maintained ahead of the 1 October celebrations, which marks the founding of the People’s Republic of China 60 years ago
• There is a high probability that escalation of war may only serve to stall the 2010 elections that will raise the de facto status of the military junta into a dejure one
• By dealing decisively with Kokang, an act of “slitting the chicken’s throat for the monkey to watch,” it may have succeeded in scaring the rest into becoming reasonable enough to accept the BGF status
“We have already predicated that Naypyitaw was gunning for the Kachins, and it turned out wrong,” said a senior Thai security officer. “It was because we didn’t have all the facts. This time we should watch more closely and gather every available data before we can predict what’s next.”
The ceasefire era, 1989-2009, has come to an end, according to Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Chief of Military Affairs Security (MIS) headed by Gen Khin Nyint, until he was ousted in 2004.
shanland
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