‘Than Shwe Should Be the First to Blink’: Diplomat

As Burma’s state-run media continues to call on Washington to lift sanctions following the highly publicized visit of pro-engagement US Senator Jim Webb, a Western diplomat close to US officials says it is now up to the Burmese regime to make the next move.

“I don’t think the US will be the first to blink. [Junta leader Snr-Gen] Than Shwe should be the one to blink now,” said the Bangkok-based diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He said that Than Shwe needs to demonstrate that he is genuinely interested in political dialogue by releasing Burma’s 2,100 political prisoners and allowing international monitors to ensure that next year’s election is credible.

So far, however, the regime in Burma hasn’t done anything to suggest that it wants to make political progress in the country, he said.

“Tangible and meaningful actions are needed, not just words,” he told The Irrawaddy.

During his visit to Burma last weekend, Webb—who is also the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs—met with both Than Shwe and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

He also secured the release of American John William Yettaw, who had just been sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment for swimming to Suu Kyi’s lakeside home.

Suu Kyi, who had been put on trial for allowing Yettaw to stay overnight to recover from muscle cramps, received a three-year prison sentence that was immediately reduced to 18 months under house arrest.

“If they are serious about the new relationship with the US, they should commute Suu Kyi’s sentence completely and free her immediately,” said the Western diplomat.

After Webb’s visit, dissidents both inside and outside of Burma began to speculate about whether the US was going to shift its policy. However, given the ongoing political stalemate, Washington is not likely to make any major changes in its Burma policy, the diplomat said.

Indeed, the Obama administration has been careful to reiterate its position that encouraging national reconciliation in Burma, and not engagement with the regime, remains it top priority.

“We continue to look for signs that the Burmese government is prepared to embark on a meaningful dialogue with Aung Sun Suu Kyi, along with the rest of the democratic opposition,” the Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, P J Crowley, told reporters at a daily State Department press briefing shortly after Webb’s visit.

In a statement thanking the regime for Yettaw’s release, the White House called on the junta to go further and free all political prisoners. “We urge the Burmese leadership in this spirit to release all the political prisoners it is holding in detention or in house arrest, including Aung San Suu Kyi,” the statement said.

It seems unlikely, then, that Washington will relax its sanctions on the Burmese junta as long as it continues to persecute its political opponents.

“How can the US lift its sanctions without action in Burma?” asked the Western diplomat, adding that Than Shwe has “done nothing to loosen his grip.”

During his meeting with Webb, Than Shwe reportedly told the senator that he could not allow UN chief Ban Ki-moon to meet Suu Kyi during his visit to Burma in June because she was on trial at the time. However, it is widely believed that his determination to isolate the pro-democracy leader stems from his strong personal animosity toward her.

Webb was the first senior US official to meet with Suu Kyi in more than a decade. In 1994, Congressman Bill Richardson spoke with the Nobel Peace Prize laureate for five hours at her house, accompanied by a reporter from The New York Times.

By contrast, Webb’s meeting with Suu Kyi took place at a government guest house and lasted less than one hour.

A Burmese source in Rangoon confirmed that the regime imposed a strict time limit on the meeting, effectively preventing Webb and Suu Kyi from discussing the issues of sanctions and engagement in any depth.

This may account for the confusion over what Suu Kyi said to Webb about her stance on engagement.

Although Webb said at a press conference following his trip to Burma that Suu Kyi seemed open to the idea of more “interaction” between the regime and the West, she actually said that there was a greater need for domestic dialogue, according to her lawyer.

Webb, who is known for his strong criticism of US sanctions on Burma, will brief US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on his visit when he returns to Washington.

During a recent visit to Southeast Asia, Clinton hinted that the Obama administration might be prepared to “open up doors for investment and for other exchanges that would help the people of Burma,” but made this conditional on Suu Kyi’s release.

Since then, the regime has given no indication that it is interested in meeting this precondition for engagement, meaning that for the time being, at least, efforts to improve relations between Washington and Naypyidaw are at a standstill.

irrawaddy